2006 Hurricane and Tropical Storm News

Florence, Gordon and Helene have all been relatively long-lived storms in September of 2006. Florence remained a named storm for nine days, as did Gordon, whilst Helene remains a named storm after eleven days. All have followed a very similar trajectory that has taken them from the southwest of Cape Verde Islands, around or east of Bermuda, then on towards the UK.

Gordon took quite a while to get going before gaining tropical storm status on the 11th. Gordon then took the easterly path around Bermuda, turned northeast to pass over the Azores as a hurricane on the 19th, before eventually bringing tropical conditions to much of the UK and Ireland.

Helene reached tropical storm status quite quicky by the 13th of the month, and was only 600 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Helene's trajectory has been the most pronounced elliptical track that has taken it to the east of Bermuda, then onto a northeasterly track. This track is set to take Helene to the north of the Azores, then on towards the UK by the 28th.

Tropical Storm Gordon weakened has it passed the Spain/Portugal coast, but has caused some damage, according to Spain's National Weather Institute. They stated that the storm had knocked down some trees and electric poles, and started a fire in one town.

Extratropical Storm Gordon is expected to bring strong gusty winds to parts of the British Isles during Thursday and early Friday, with gusts of up to 70mph in parts of Cornwall and Ireland.

This will be the final tracking report for Hurricane Gordon.

Hurricane Helene is approximately 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, and the NHC expect it to stay several hundred miles east of the island, and be no threat to land.

Helene's maximum sustained winds are close to 80 mph, and the NHC expect no changes over the coming 24 hours.

Since Helene is no threat to land, all tracking will now cease. Should Helene become a threat in the coming days, tracking will recommence.

Hurricane Gordon has slightly de-intensified again as it passed over the Azores and now has sustained winds of 75mph. Current track takes it into Portugal as it tracks east at 35mph, although the NHC forecast has it turning towards the northeast in the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Helene is currently jogging around in the Atlantic, approximately 750 miles southeast of Bermuda. Helene has maximum sustained winds of 110mph. The NHC are saying that Helene has already made a turn to the northwest, although the NavyMil suggests by the latest satellite overpass that it is either stationary or still moving west. We will have to wait and see.

Hurricane Gordon has de-intensified since earlier today and now has sustained winds of 85mph as it approaches the Azores. Hurricane Gordon is tracking to the east at 33mph.

Hurricane Helene reverts to a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110mph. Helene is still on the more westerly track, although the NHC are still anticipating a turn to the north. Helene is moving to the west-northwest at a steady 9mph.

Hurricane Gordon increased intensity again and now has sustained winds of 100mph as it approaches the Azores. Hurricane Gordon is tracking to the east at 28mph, and is forecast to arrive in the Azores today.

Hurricane Helene remains a major hurricane with maximum sustsained winds of 115mph and the very prominent eye feature. Helene is still on the more westerly track, although the NHC are anticipating a turn to the north. Helene is moving to the west-northwest at 8mph, and is not expected to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Helene has de-intensified a little, but remains a major hurricane. Maximum sustsained winds are 115mph and the very prominent eye feature still exists. Helene has turned onto a more westerly track for the time being. Helene is moving to the west-northwest at 9mph, and is not expected to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Gordon increased intensity again and has sustained winds of 90mph. Hurricane Gordon is tracking to the east-northeast at 22mph in the middle of the Atlantic, and is forecast to arrive near the Azores on Tuesday.

Overnight, Hurricane Helene became the second major hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. With maximum sustsained winds of 120mph and a very prominent eye feature, Helene continues to organize as it takes a more northerly track. Helene is moving to the north-northwest at 7mph, but the NHC expect Helene to turn back towards the west-northwest within the next 12 hours.

Hurricane Gordon retains it's intensity with sustained winds of 80mph. Hurricane Gordon is tracking to the northeast at 20mph in the middle of the Atlantic, and is forecast to arrive over the Azores in the early hours of Wednesday (gmt).

Hurricane Gordon has strengthened a little and now has sustained winds of 80mph. Hurricane Gordon is tracking to the northeast at 14mph in the middle of the Atlantic.

Hurricane Helene continues to organize with a prominent eye feature, and has increased in intensity as it tracks towards Bermuda, although south-westerly shear appears to be affecting it, as can be seen in the shortwave image on the left. Helene is moving to the northwest at 9mph with maximum sustained winds of 105mph. The NHC expect Helene to continue this motion for the next couple of days before turning towards the north.

Hurricane Gordon has weakened again, and now has sustained winds of 75mph. Hurricane Gordon has started moving again, and is tracking north at 6mph in the middle of the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Helene became the fourth hurricane of the 2006 Hurricane Season. Helene continues to organize, and increase in intensity as it finds more favourable conditions and heads northwest towards Bermuda. Helene is moving at 9mph with maximum sustained winds of 85mph. The NHC expect Helene to continue to strengthen for the next couple of days, with a slight turn towards the west.

Hurricane Gordon has weakened since yesterday, and now has sustained winds of 90mph. Hurricane Gordon presently remains becalmed in the middle of the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Helene continues to organize, and increase in intensity as it heads west-northwest into the open ocean. Helene is moving at 15mph with maximum sustained winds of 70mph. The NHC expect Helene to become a hurricane by the next advisory. They do not expect Helene to threaten land.

Hurricane Gordon strengthened again yesterday, and has maintained winds of 120mph ever since. This makes Hurricane Gordon a category 3 storm, and the first major hurricane of the season. Gordon is tracking to the northeast at 12mph. It will be no threat to land, and the NHC expect it to revert to a tropical storm by lunchtime on Sunday.

Tropical Depression 8 became Tropical Storm Helene yesterday, the eighth named storm of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Helene is still well to the east, and is moving towards the west-northwest at 16mph with maximum sustained winds of 45mph.

Tropical Storm Gordon became Hurricane Gordon yesterday, the third hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Hurricane Gordon has strengthened again since yesterday and now has winds of 110mph. Gordon is tracking to the north at 12mph. It will be no threat to land.

Tropical Depression 8, soon to become Tropical Storm Helene, is still well to the east and is moving towards the west at 18mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. There is strong easterly shear over this system which is currently holding down the intensity.

Tropical Depression 8, soon to become Tropical Storm Helene, is well to the east and is moving towards the west at approximately 13mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph.

Tropical Storm Gordon is moving to the north at 9mph with maximum sustained winds of 65mph. The HNC expect Gordon to become a hurricane soon, but it will not threaten land.

Hurricane Florence passing Canada on it's way to being extra-tropical. Winds are 75mph as she jets up the east coast at 25mph. This is the final tracking map for Hurricane Florence.

As expected, the NHC have upgraded Tropical Depression Seven to Tropical Storm Gordon. Gordon is moving to the northwest at 9mph with maximum sustained winds of 45mph.

Hurricane Florence is still packing winds of 90mph as she jets up the east coast.

System 07L.Seven has been renamed 07L.Gordon by the NavyMil, which means that they have classified it as Tropical Storm Gordon. Gordon is moving to the west-northwest with a current intensity of 40kts. As yet, the NHC have not changed their designation of this system, but it is almost certain they too will classify this system as Tropical Storm Gordon by the 1700EDT advisory, the seventh named storm of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

This storm is almost following in the footsteps of Florence, as you will see from the double overlay on the tracking page, but Gordon is very different from Florence. Whereas Florence was a huge storm, 900 miles across, Gordon is tiny by comparison at just 130 miles in diameter. It's forecast track should take it to the east of Bermuda.

System 07L.Seven, which is defined by the NavyMil as a Tropical Depression, is currently spinning up to the east of Antigua. This system has been hanging around for a few days as an Invest, but is now starting to develop some decent organization. The direction of motion is not known at this time. Current intensity is 25 knots.

Tropical Storm Florence became Hurricane Florence yesterday evening, and is now tracking to the north at 13mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 90mph since yesterday, and further strengthening is expected before reaching Bermuda. The NHC now believe that Florence will pass close to Bermuda around lunchtime on Monday as a Category two Hurricane. Bermuda will most likely be on the clean side of Florence, resulting in the perceived intensity being more than the nominal 90mph.

Tropical Storm Florence is tracking to the northwest at 13mph as it curves around the system to it's northeast. Maximum sustained winds have increased from yesterday to 65mph, and further strengthening is expected between now and reaching Bermuda. The NHC are predicting that Florence will pass over Bermuda around lunchtime on Monday as a Category one Hurricane.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to track to the west-northwest at at an increased speed of 15mph as it begins to curve around the system to it's north. Maximum sustained winds remain at 50mph, although some strengthening is now expected as it turns towards the northwest, as the NHC had predicted. They are predicting that Florence will be near Bermuda in 72 hours as a 100mph Cat2 Hurricane.

Florence is a huge storm, more than 900 miles across, so Bermuda can expect to start feeling the sting in less than 72 hours - maybe 36 hours.

NOTE: The distances from Nasau (Bahamas) have been revised due to inaccuracies in initial plots.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to track to the west-northwest at 9mph. Maximum sustained winds remain at 50mph.

Tropical wave 91L.Invest continues tracking towards the west with maximum sustained winds of 25kts.

System 92L.Invest off the Florida coast is quite interesting in that it appeared quite suddenly. No movement estimate is yet given, but the maximum winds are 25kts.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to track to the west-northwest at 12mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50mph. The NHC has Florence turning sharply to the north at the end of the 5 day forecast, which will comes as a relief to those of you in the Bahamas. But, be warned, 5 day predictions can be wrong, so be prepared and stay vigilant.

Tropical wave 91L.Invest continues tracking towards the west with maximum sustained winds of 25kts.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to track to the west-northwest at 13mph. Maximum sustained winds are steady at 45mph.

Tropical wave 91L.Invest continues tracking towards the west with maximum sustained winds of 25kts.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to track to the west-northwest at 12mph. Maximum sustained winds are steady at 45mph.

Tropical wave 91L.Invest is approximately 320 miles east of where Florence began. It's moving towards the west with maximum sustained winds of 25kts. Could be another one to watch over the coming week.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to get stronger and is tracking to the west-northwest at 12mph. Maximum sustained winds are now 45mph. The NHC have adjusted the track of Florence, which takes it more westerly than north-westerly. The forecast puts Florence as a 100mph hurricane just to the east of the northern Bahamas in 5 days time.

Despite adverse conditions in the central Atlantic, Tropical Depression SIX becomes the sixth named storm of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Tropical Storm Florence is tracking to the west-northwest at 13mph with maximum sustained winds of 40mph. Since this is now a named storm, tracking will commence for Tropical Storm Florence. The Google Earth tracking files can be found on the Download Page

This is a big storm, approximately 500 miles across and, as such, it bears watching closely.

Tropical Depression SIX tracks west-northwest at 13mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. The NHC don't have much for this during the next couple of days due to currently unfavourable conditions. But, this is a large system that has turned towards a more westerly direction, and conditions are expected to become a lot more favourable for rapid development. With this system pointing directly at the Bahamas and Florida, it has to be taken very seriously indeed. Keep a close watch on it..

Tropical Depression SIX still tracks northwest at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph.

Tropical Depression SIX has not strengthened overnight, and continues to track northwest at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph.

At 2100z yesterday, system 06L.Six was classified by the NHC as tropical depression SIX. SIX is moving to the northwest at 14mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. SIX is expected to become Tropical Storm Florence by early Monday. Tracking will commence when SIX becomes Tropical Storm Florence, although current maps can be found on the maps page.

At 1815z, 99L.Invest is not looking like much. It is still moving to the west with winds of 25 knots.

Of much more interest is another tropical wave, 1400 miles east of Barbados and moving west to northwest. 06L.Six has been classed as a tropical depression by the Navymil, with wind speeds of 30 knots. One to keep an eye on over the coming week.

At 1715z, 99L.Invest is beginning to get more organized as it approaches the Caribbean. 99L.Invest is currently moving to the west-northwest with winds of 25 knots.

There is a possibility that 99L.Invest could become Tropical Storm Florence in a couple of days, as long as conditions in the area remain favourable.

At 1100EDT, Tropical Storm Ernesto was downgraded by the NHC to a tropical depression, 80 miles west-southwest of Norfolk, Virginia. It is tracking north at 14mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph.

Since this site only tracks named storms, this will be the final report for Ernesto.

Tropical Storm Ernesto arrived over North Carolina earlier this morning, and is now tracking north at 15mph with maximum sustained winds of 60mph.

Tropical Storm Ernesto is tracking north-northeast at 17mph with maximum sustained winds that have increased to 70mph. Ernesto's position at 1700EDT was approximately 54 miles from Cape Island, South Carolina, and on it's present track it will most likely make landfall in North Carolina.

The NHC have stated that Ernesto could strengthen further before reaching land, and that it could make landfall as a category 1 hurricane. Landfall could be east of Brunswick or, if it stays more to the east, then southeast of Jacksonville.

Tropical Storm Ernesto is tracking north at 17mph with sustained winds of 60mph, and will be entering South Carolina shortly. The NHC expect no further strengthening of Ernesto prior to landfall. Landfall is expected to be near to the border with North Carolina.

Ernesto regained tropical storm strength at 0200EDT as it moved out over water, having remained a tropical depression during it's journey through Florida. Tropical Storm Ernesto is tracking north at 15mph with sustained winds of 50mph, and is expected to run parallel to the coast and re-enter land in South Carolina as a tropical storm this evening.

Since Ernesto has regained tropical storm status, tracking has re-commenced.

Ernesto has reverted to a tropical depression over Florida, and is tracking north at 10mph with sustained winds of 35mph. Since this site only tracks named storms, tracking will cease for Ernesto until it regains tropical storm status.

Tropical Storm Ernesto entered the Florida Keys in the early hours, and is tracking to the north-northwest at 8mph with maximum sustained winds of 45mph. Current location is in north-eastern mainland Munroe county.

Ernesto is expected to continue tracking in a northerly direction through central Florida, then continue up the coast and re-enter at South Carolina as a tropical storm on Thursday afternoon. It's track then continues through North Carolina and Virginia as a tropical storm during Friday and Saturday.

Still no change for this reporting period, as Tropical Storm Ernesto moves to the northwest at 13mph with maximum sustained winds of 45mph.

Little change for this reporting period as Tropical Storm Ernesto moves to the northwest at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 45mph.

Tropical Storm Ernesto has passed over Cuba and has once again moved out into open water where it can be expected to re-intensify. Ernesto is moving northwest at 12mph with maximum sustained winds at 45mph.

The NHC now have Ernesto remaining as a tropical storm until it comes ashore in South Carolina. Meanwhile, it is expected to enter the keys this evening then sweep up the eastern coast of Florida into Wednesday evening as a 65mph tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Ernesto has almost passed over Cuba. Ernesto is moving northwest at 13mph with maximum sustained winds still at 40mph.

The NHC have cooled their 3 day forecast somewhat. They now believe that Ernesto will brush the eastern coast of Florida late Tuesday/early Wednesday as a 70mph tropical storm, then head offshore towards South Carolina. They expect it to make landfall there as a category 1 hurricane. Florida could almost be off the hook, especially if Ernesto decides to make a further turn towards the east.

Tropical Storm Ernesto is now just a borderline tropical storm as it passes over Cuba. Ernesto is moving northwest at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of just 40mph, and could briefly revert to being a tropical depression until clearing land.

But don't become complacent. The NHC still expect it to re-intensify back to a hurricane as it starts to move over open water, and Florida can expect to see maximum sustaind winds of around 85mph with stronger gusts.

Tropical Storm Ernesto has been knocked back again as it approaches Cuba. Ernesto is moving northwest at 12mph with sustained winds of 50mph, and is expected to remain as a tropical storm until clearing Cuba sometime early morning on Tuesday. The NHC then expect it to re-intensify back to a hurricane before snaking it's way up Florida from south to north on Wednesday morning. Florida entry and exit points appear to be around Key Largo and south of Jacksonville. Maximum estimated windspeed over Florida is expected to be around 85mph with stronger gusts.

Hurricane Ernesto has had the wind taken out of it's sails as it lashed Haiti. It has been knocked back to a tropical storm with winds of 60mph, and is moving towards the northwest at 8mph. The NHC expect it to re-intensify as it begins to move over open water again.

Hurricane Ernesto is moving towards the northwest at 9mph with winds of 75mph. The NHC track now looks more northerly than previously, which will take it on a track that almost parallels the west Florida coastline, putting the coast on the clean side. This will obviously have more of an impact, and also affect more areas than a straight-across path. Floridians need to take care with this one..

At the 5am NHC advisory, Tropical Storm Ernesto was moving towards the west-northwest at 9mph with winds of 70mph. Four minutes later, an air force reconaissance plane reported winds of 75mph, making Ernesto the first hurricane of the 2006 Hurricane Season.

The 5 day extended NHC  forecast now sees Ernesto turning northeast and making landfall over mid Florida by lunchtime Thursday as a 100kt hurricane.

Tropical Storm Ernesto's track has been updated by the NHC after a hurricane hunter found Ernesto to be somewhat further east-northeast than expected. Intensity was also up on expected and is now set at 60mph. Ernesto is moving towards the west-northwest at 13mph and could be upgraded to a hurricane shortly after passing over Jamaica on Sunday afternoon. The 5 day extended NHC  forecast has Ernesto in the GOM as a Cat3, 105kt hurricane at the end of the period.

Note: These pages will be updated every 6 hours whilst Ernesto continues to threaten land.

Tropical Storm Ernesto is moving towards the west-northwest at 14mph with winds of 50mph. Ernesto is expected to pass over Jamaica on Sunday afternoon then become a hurricane by 8am Monday. The 5 day NHC forecast has Ernesto passing into the Gulf of Mexico by lunchtime Tuesday as an 80kt Cat1 hurricane, then tracking towards New Orleans.

Note: These pages will be updated every 6 hours whilst Ernesto continues to threaten land.

Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to move westwards at 16mph with winds of 45mph. There has been no change to the NHC's prediction which makes Ernesto a hurricane by early Monday.

Debby fizzled and reverted to a tropical depression at 0500edt. All tracking will now cease for Debby.

Note: These pages will be updated every 6 hours whilst Ernesto continues to threaten land.

Tropical Storm Debby is still crossing the mid Atlantic, and is slowly losing organization and de-intensifying - now 40mph.

Tropical Storm Debby is crossing the mid Atlantic, tracking to the west-northwest at 17mph with a windspeed of 50mph. The HNC forecast no longer has Debby becoming a hurricane in 5 days time, but to remain as a tropical storm which turns towards the north-east by Sunday.

Tropical Depression 5 continues to track west at 20mph, south of Puerto Rico. Current sustained winds are still 35mph. although the NHC expect it to become Tropical Storm Ernesto later today or tonight. When it does, this site will begin tracking.

Note: These pages will be updated once per day, around lunchtime GMT, whilst Debby does not affect land. If and when Tropical Depression 5 becomes Ernesto, these pages will be updated every 6 hours, as per the NHC.

Tropical Storm Debby continues to cross the eastern Atlantic, tracking to the west-northwest at 20mph with a windspeed of 45mph. Debby had briefly increased in intensity, but has now settled back after losing some of it's organization. The HNC forecast still has Debby becoming a hurricane in 5 days time, although 5 day predictions are somewhat 'unpredictable'. Stay tuned.

A tropical wave moving through the Windward Islands has become Tropical Depression 5, the fifth depression of the 2006 Hurricane Season. Current movement is to the west at 22mph with sustained winds of 35mph.

Tropical Storm Debby continues to cross the eastern Atlantic, moving to the west-northwest at 20mph with a windspeed of 45mph. Debby had briefly increased in intensity, but has now settled back after losing some of it's organization. The HNC forecast still has Debby becoming a hurricane in 5 days time, although 5 day predictions are somewhat 'unpredictable'. Stay tuned.

Tropical Depression 4 became Tropical Storm Debby at 2300edt in the far eastern Atlantic, close to the Cape Verde Islands. Debby is moving to the west-northwest at 16mph with a windspeed of 45mph.

The NHC's forecast has Debby becoming a hurricane within the next 4 days.

Google Earth tracking has now started for Tropical Storm Debby - see the Hurricane Debby tracking page for an overview of it's track. As soon as Debby loses it's tropical storm status, tracking will end.

Tropical Depression 4 continues to move west-northwest, now at 16mph. The NHC forecast still shows that the TD will become Tropical Storm Debby within 24 hours. Current intensity is 35mph.

This site only begins Google Earth tracking once the system becomes a tropical storm/hurricane. Watch this space...

Both Tropical Storm Beryl and Tropical Storm Chris made an appearance whilst I was on holiday for three weeks. The maps for these storms can be found on the relevant pages. There are no Google Earth tracking files for these storms.

System 96L expired when it came close to the Leeward Islands. There is no likely development on the horizon presently. Enjoy the fact, while you can.

System 96L is moving to the west and paralleling the Brazilian coast. This wave has an intensity of 25 knots, and presently looks very disorganized as one would expect. But, it still has a long way to go, and anything is possible in the next few days. Keep an eye on it.

Well, systems 94L and 95L came, and went, and neither amounted to a can of worms. There is no tropical weather of note anywhere in the Atlantic Basin, and nothing on the horizon. Sit back and relax, for now, because July is not noted for being a particularly quiet month.

System 91L has disappeared inland somewhere over GA, while the mid level low skirting up the eastern seaboard kept everyone confused. 92L went almost as quickly as it arrived. The only other thing of note is system 93L, a wave moving west along the south american coast and approaching the Windward Isles, although it's not doing much at this time.

System 91L is still hanging around in the Bahamas area, but the NavyMil now have a new invest in the form of 92L. This system is spinning up in the central Atlantlic. Both can be seen in the Google Earth overlay map. The 92L image is just above.

This system has been hanging around in the Bahamas area for the last week. It is now somewhat better organized with some noticeable banding and plenty of convection. As a result of this better organization, the NavyMil have named it as the latest Invest, which means that it will be watched a lot more carefully over the next few days. A recon will more than likely take place within the next 24 hours. No well-defined LLC has yet been identified that could be called the centre of this messy system, although a number of circulations have been seen recently. Should system 91L flare-up prior to the recon, then they may find winds in the system that approach Tropical Depression force. For the moment, though, this is uncertain. Upper level winds are now becoming more favourable for development, and any rapid intensification prior to reaching the Florida east coast would give us our second tropical storm of the season, which would be named as Beryl.

Alberto has just crossed the border into Georgia and is tracking northeast at 40 mph. The chances are, that on the next advisories, Alberto will be a tropical depression then an extra-tropical storm shooting up the east coast. Since this site only tracks named storms, this will be the last tracking map for Alberto.

Alberto is just about to come ashore as a 50 mph tropical storm, just to the southeast of the Big Bend. It's still tracking northeast and dissipating fast.

Tropical Storm Alberto slowing down as it approaches the Big Bend. Alberto's speed has dropped to 65 mph as it approaches the coast and tracking northeast. This looks as if Alberto's chances of ever becoming a hurricane have gone out of the window.

Tropical Storm Alberto fails to reach hurricane status as it approaches the Florida coastline - breath a sigh of relief. Now tracking towards the northeast, Alberto's speed has increased to 10 mph. The chances are that Alberto will continue to speed up as it crosses Florida and Georgia and, at the same time, rapidly de-intensify as per the NHC's prediction.

NHC have now decided that the LLC to the northeast of the original is now the dominant one, and moved Alberto's position further to the north and east. Tropical Storm Alberto has also increased in intensity again since the last advisory, and significantly so. This rapid change in intensity has forced them to issue hurricane warnings for much of the central to northern west Florida coastline, from Tampa to the panhandle. They expect Alberto to become Hurricane Alberto within the next 24 hours.

Alberto is moving to the north-northeast at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 70mph. The NHC predicted track is such that the centre is still expected to be to the south of the Big Bend.

Looking very broad and ragged, Tropical Storm Alberto has, nevertheless, increased in intensity over the last 12 hours. Alberto is moving to the north-northeast at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. NHC still have Alberto crossing just to the south of the Big Bend, at which time they expect it to be tracking to the northeast.

Strongly sheared from the southwest, Tropical Storm Alberto's appearance over the last six hours has degraded somewhat. This can be seen in the latest short visible image. That said, the NHC have not changed their position on Alberto since the last advisory, and still have Alberto remaining at it's current intensity for the next 24 hours.

A lot of rain has been falling over Florida, bringing some welcome relief to residents that have been going through a long dry spell.

Tropical Depression One has now intensified to become the first named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Alberto.

Alberto looks much better organised since entering the GOM overnight, with it's visible cloud banding clear to see. Convection is still well to the east of the center and is likely to remain there until the westerly shear eases. This system is over the warmer waters of the Gulf, away from the shelf, so some intensification could be expected over the next 24 hours, although the NHC are not currently going out on a limb and stating that.

The NHC expect Alberto to continue on it north-westerly track initially, then make a turn the north and northeast later. Alberto still looks likely to pass over the Big Bend and northernmost Florida as the models were predicting. This will result in high levels of precipitation - just what the doctor ordered. Current speed is 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.

Tropical Depression Alberto has failed to intensify since this morning, and remains a ragged system with multiple LLC's (Low Level Circulation). The convection from Alberto is predominantly to the east, with no sign of either LLC getting hooked up with the convection.

Since this site only tracks named storms, further tracking will be discontinued until Alberto is deemed to be a Tropical Storm. We will continue to provide news updates here until such time.

Dave Foster, standing under a palm tree in Naples, FL.

Well, that pesky-looking low in the south-western Caribbean that I mentioned last week has been getting it's act together. It is now somewhat further north, and beginning to take shape. The models are almost uniformly in agreement that this system will track north into the gulf, turn north-east to cross northern Florida, then push onwards up the east coast. Word on the street is that it could be a tropical depression within 24 hours, and become tropical storm Alberto not long after.

Sit down and buckle your belts, this could be a bumpy ride. At the very least, System 90L could bring substantial rain to Florida over the next few days.

Check out the latest computer models here

The 2006 Hurricane Season

Opening Season Preamble

4th June, 2006

We're now four days into the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and although conditions are currently looking somewhat unfavourable for development, a system in the south-western Caribbean has been flexing it's muscles. Nothing is expected to come of it, but the fact that a system in early June has caused some excitement among weather-watchers has to be a worry in a season that has been widely forecast to see above average tropical activity.

The eastern Pacific basin has already seen Tropical Storm Aletta as early as the 27th May, and another system has been spinning-up recently. Let's hope this is not a sign of things to come in the Atlantic basin.

Here's the list of 2006 contenders.

Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce,
Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William

We've now created a forum for you to discuss the hurricanes with other enthusiasts, doom and gloom fanatics and worried homeowners. This forum is free to join, and we've tried to make it as simple as possible to get registered and get posting.

We decided to offer the first 5 users to register their very own e-mail account at ascn92.dsl.pipex.com. At the registration screen just provide a username of your choice, a password of your choice and one of the following free e-mail addresses: me1, me2, me3, me4, me5@ascn92.dsl.pipex.com. It couldn't be simpler. But, be quick, there's only five. Full details can be found in the General Admin forum :

Hurricane Tracking Forum

The Navymil watch developing tropical systems, and perform reconnaisance on them. This development cycle goes through two initial stages - the investigation cycle followed by the reporting cycle.

In the investigation cycle, systems are given a codename beginning at 90, then progessing through 91, 92 etc. for subsequent systems. The L suffix indicates an Atlantic system, the .Invest indicates an investigation. When they get to 99 they start back at the beginning.

During the reporting cycle, when the system has been deemed to have reached tropical depression status, codes 00 to 09 are used with a character-based name suffix.

Once the system has become a tropical depression the National Hurricane Center begins reporting it, and they produce their first forecast and map. The NHC notation for the depression is to use the name 'Tropical Depression ' followed by an uppercase, character-based value. The first depression of the season becomes ONE. By the sixth depression they are using the notation 'Tropical Depression SIX'.

Well, now that Zeta has gone I think it's about time to wind up the 2005 Season, and sign-off on Zeta.

Zeta brought to an end a record breaking, extended 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season that the NHC would probably like to forget. As the NHC stated in their final advisory for Zeta, '...the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season ends with a record breaking storm'. Tropical Storm Zeta surpassed the 1954 season's Alice #2 as the longest-lived tropical cyclone to form in December and cross over into the next year. Zeta was the longest-lived January tropical cyclone. Zeta also helped the 2005 Hurricane Season to amass the largest amount of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), surpassing the 1950 season.

All in all, a long and dramatic season, with more than enough extreme tropical weather to keep even the most jaded hurricane hunter satisfied. And, on the other side of the coin, far too much activity for those folk that live in the hurricane-prone areas - and I'm sure we all still feel for those that took the tragic losses.

Tropical Storm Zeta has succumbed, again, to the hostile conditions and becomes a tropical depression. But this time Zeta should stay down as it is eaten away by a swathe of much drier air moving across it from the west. That, together with a sharp cold front moving in quickly from the west, should put an end to Zeta once and for all. Therefore, this will be the final tracking map for Zeta, I swear...

Tropical Storm Zeta is once again hanging onto it's tropical status by the skin of it's teeth. The satellite imagery doesn't look too good at the moment, and I believe it took a brave call by the NHC forecaster to refrain from downgrading it. It's looking very ragged, with not much discernible banding and very little convection, much the way it looked like last night at about the same time. I fear the end is drawing nigh for Zeta, and will be surprised to see it last out the next 24 to 36 hours as a tropical cyclone.

You've heard of the boxer being down and out? Well, Tropical Storm Zeta was down, but apparently not out. Zeta has bounced back and regained tropical storm status, and is now moving northwest at 8mph with sustained winds of 40mph. A short-lived revival I believe.

Tropical Storm Zeta has finally been overcome by the hostile environment in the north Atlantic, and has succumbed to the persistent 50kts of vertical shear that it has been encountering. Zeta is moving to the west at 12mph with sustained winds of 35mph. This means that Zeta is now officially Tropical Depression Zeta, and that it never made it to that elusive hurricane status as it had threatened to do on many occasions. Tropical Depression Zeta is now forecast to make a turn to the northwest, then head in that direction towards Bermuda for the next three days. I suppose there is still some possibility that Zeta might again strengthen on that track, if conditions become significantly more conducive to development, so we'll continue to watch it for any signs of re-intensification.

Zeta turned out to be another forecasters nightmare for the NHC team, and I'm sure they've learned a lot from the experience. Since this site only tracks named storms, this is the final tracking map for Zeta. Should Zeta once again become a tropical storm or hurricane over the next few days, then this site will recommence tracking. Otherwise, Adieu Zeta!

Tropical Storm Zeta has weakened again since the last advisory and now has sustained winds of 50mph. The NHC believe that this is a trend, and forecast Zeta to continue to weaken over the next 48 hours as dry air and further shear take their toll. Zeta continues to track to the west at 8mph, but is expected to turn to the northwest. Since Zeta is now a shallow system they expect it to be steered by the low level flow between the high pressure system and an approaching cold front.

Tropical Storm Zeta has weakened a tad since the last advisory. Zeta now has sustained winds of 60mph and is tracking west at 7mph. The current weather pattern is complicated, and looks to be a real challenge for the NHC forecasters over the next couple of days as various features move quickly around the north Atlantic. But Hurricane Zeta has shown itself to be a resilient system, with the ability to take the hits from strong westerlies and shear then bounce back and consolidate.

At 2200est Tropical Storm Zeta is moving west-southwest at 5mph, and retains it's previous intensity of 65mph. The NHC believe that Zeta is possibly more intense than the 55kts that they have assigned, that there is moderate convection near the center, and that the outflow is established with no strong shear. They are also beginning to believe that the GFDL may be correct in it's assertion that Zeta will become a hurricane. Nevertheless, they are once again taking the cautious approach and sticking with 55kts for the next 24 to 36 hours.

At 1600est Tropical Storm Zeta is moving west at 5mph, and is still holding on to it's 65mph sustained winds. The official forecast says that Zeta is moving west, but in fact, according to the plot, Zeta is now moving more towards the northwest. Now, whether this is a temporary motion or whether this is the beginning of Zeta's predicted turn to the north I cannot be sure. We will need to wait for the next advisory to confirm this.

At 1000est Tropical Storm Zeta is moving west-southwest at 5mph and is maintaining it's maximum sustained winds of 65mph. The forecast is for shear to decrease during the next period, but the NHC does not expect Zeta to increase in intensity, we'll probably just see some consolidation, and maybe get the low level circulation synchronized with the upper convection currently offset to the northeast. Assuming this happens, then we may get a little intensification next period, although the NHC don't appear to be prepared to go out on a limb about that for the moment.

At 0400est Tropical Storm Zeta is moving west-southwest at 2mph and has intensified again as it moves past the trough and begins to experience less shear. Zeta's winds are now 65mph, with the reasonable chance of further intensification. The storm is still being undercut somewhat from the southwest, and convection is offset from the center to the northeast. But, Zeta is in good shape now, and the possibility exists that conditions could improve slightly over the next 24 hours, culminating in Zeta becoming a hurricane. In the words of the NHC; 'NO KNOWN HURRICANE HAS EVER FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY'.

At 2200est Tropical Storm Zeta is moving west at 2mph and intensifying, much to the chagrin of the NHC; '...ZETA STRENGTHENED AGAINST ALL ODDS AND FORECASTS...'. Winds are now up to 60mph, and Zeta looks much better this evening as witnessed by the 2245z 91ghz image above. Just look at the very cold cloud tops to the north (red) that are beginning to wrap around an eye-like feature (green). I can understand the consternation at the NHC, I've seen it before with Epsilon. They seemed like they were pulling their hair out at times, as it continued to confound them for days. Just take a look at how Zeta strengthens, then pushes it's way through the trough that moves in from the west between 2100z and 0300z. Here's the Intellicast view of it. Quite astonishing. And the forecaster has finally tipped his hat to the GFDL model; 'A BRAVO FOR THE GFDL. IT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS KEPT ZETA ALIVE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN MAKES IT A 79-KNOT HURRICANE AS A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE HURRICANE.'

At 1600est Tropical Storm Zeta still pushing west-southwest at 7mph. These sub-tropical storms are now beginning to irritate the forecasters at the NHC - quote: 'CLEARLY WE NEED AN INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF INTENSITY CHANGE FOR SYSTEMS IN THE SUBTROPICS SUCH AS ZETA...EPSILON...VINCE...ETC'. As soon as Zeta appears to be on it's last legs it gives another burst of convection, and surprises them again. They really need to get reconnaissance out to at least one of these systems in order to gain more of an understanding of what makes them tick. Apparently, Zeta is still being subjected to heavy shear with still more to come, and it is inconceivable to the NHC that a storm is able to function under such extreme conditions. It is going to come as more than a little surprise if Zeta intensifies to hurricane status during tonight, just as the GFDL model has been predicting all along.

At 1000est Tropical Storm Zeta is still pushing to the west-southwest at 8mph with sustained winds of 50mph. This motion is expected to continue, and the NHC are still predicting that Zeta will expire in 24 hours - they have been saying this for the last 2 days. As with Epsilon, the other pain in the NHC's backside, Tropical Storm Zeta just refuses to die, and the longer it pushes west the more chance it has of becoming a hurricane - my opinion only.

NOTE: The NHC maps are now back.

Tropical Storm Zeta still meandering in a large anti clockwise pattern in the middle of the North Atlantic. Shear has reduced since the last advisory and convection has become somewhat stronger, although intensity is still judged to be in the 50mph range. Further shear is expected to again take the wind out of the sails of Zeta over the next 12 hours, which could ultimately lead to it's demise.

A HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL

NOTE: It looks as if the NHC have discontinued producing prediction maps as of 0400est.

Tropical Storm Zeta still meanders in the middle of the North Atlantic with little change over the last 12 hours. Zeta is still being impacted by shear but less so than 24 hours ago, and the thinking now is that Zeta could go on milling around for quite a while longer. One of the computer models is predicting that Zeta becomes a hurricane in 3 to 4 days, although the NHC are discounting this scenario for the time being. Zeta appears to be in an area of poor steering so it's motion is expected to be erratic, although a general motion towards the west is forecast.

Tropical Storm Zeta has begun to meander in the middle of the Atlantic with some movement to the south-southeast of it's last position. The signature has slowly deteriorated as shear has eaten into it's low level circulation on the west side. The NHC expect this weakening to continue for the next couple of days before Tropical Storm Zeta is absorbed by a frontal trough from the west. Zeta's winds are currently 50mph, and a decrease in intensity is expected to follow shortly.

Tropical Storm Zeta has made the predicted turn to the west, but the NHC have revised their thinking on what they expect Zeta to do over the next couple of days. As Zeta moves towards the west, it's center will become increasingly exposed to the increasing westerlies which will limit strong convection on that side, although convection on the eastern side remains strong. It is now known that the wind field is rather small, as reported by a ship that passed within 40 nautical miles of Zeta, and those winds were reported as being no higher than 34kts. A frontal system 700 miles to the northwest could turn Zeta sharply northwards assuming that Zeta can manage to hold on for that long. So, based on the new observations and other data, Tropical Storm Zeta's time could well be shorter than was thought on the previous advisory.

Tropical Storm Zeta has become better organized, according to the NHC, as can be seen on the 37Gh TRMM image. Still tracking northwest with winds up from 50 to 60mph, Zeta has deep convection over it's low-level center and cold cloud tops, all good signs. The NHC believes that Zeta's intensity could be even higher than quoted, with sustained winds of up to 60kts, but they remain cautious and suggest they may up the figure at the next advisory. They also believe that Zeta may last longer than expected and take a more westerly or southwesterly track. Another concern that they have is that the wind shear that has been used up to now may be too high, since Zeta is a relatively shallow system, and this could be another factor that decides on how much further Zeta will be able to develop over the coming hours.

Tropical Storm Zeta still tracking northwest at 7mph with sustained winds of 50mph.

Tropical Storm Zeta finally makes an appearance, and just in time before the year runs out. Zeta formed out of a feature in the eastern Atlantic that appeared a couple of days ago, and in a similar area to Hurricane Vince, about 1000 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Storm Zeta is currently tracking to the northwest at 7mph with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. This is the latest time in the year that a tropical system has ever formed, making Hurricane - elect Zeta yet another record breaker.

Well, it looks as if nothing wicked this way cometh, at least not for now. It's beginning to look as if Hurricane Epsilon is about to become the last official storm of the 2005 Hurricane Season. And, with no Hurricane Zeta to worry about, that's the last of the Greek alphabet we'll be using for a while. As of the 1st January 2006, the first named storm that appears will be given the name Alberto. And those that follow will take the following names Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William . Here's looking forward to a quiet New Year!

Zeta to-be finally met it's match this afternoon as it came up against the limit of it's westerly motion, and was flattened by the trough. And, that looks as if it might be the end of the show for the time being. There's still the possibility of another cut-off low over the next few days, although the models don't appear to give it much chance, and that's not surprising now considering how late into the year we are. No, I think we could be going into a slow spell that will hopefully last until June! But, we'll be watching, and if anything that looks remotely