Hurricane Florence passing Canada on it's way to being extra-tropical. Winds are 75mph as she jets up the east coast at 25mph.

Hurricane Florence has passed Bermuda, and is still packing winds of 90mph as she jets up the east coast.

Tropical Storm Florence became Hurricane Florence yesterday evening, and is now tracking to the north at 13mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 90mph since yesterday, and further strengthening is expected before reaching Bermuda. The NHC now believe that Florence will pass close to Bermuda around lunchtime on Monday as a Category two Hurricane. Bermuda will most likely be on the clean side of Florence, resulting in the perceived intensity being more than the nominal 90mph.

Tropical Storm Florence is tracking to the northwest at 13mph as it curves around the system to it's northeast. Maximum sustained winds have increased from yesterday to 65mph, and further strengthening is expected between now and reaching Bermuda. The NHC are predicting that Florence will pass over Bermuda around lunchtime on Monday as a Category one Hurricane.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to track to the west-northwest at at an increased speed of 15mph as it begins to curve around the system to it's north. Maximum sustained winds remain at 50mph, although some strengthening is now expected as it turns towards the northwest, as the NHC had predicted. They are predicting that Florence will be near Bermuda in 72 hours as a 100mph Cat2 Hurricane.

Florence is a huge storm, more than 900 miles across, so Bermuda can expect to start feeling the sting in less than 72 hours - maybe 36 hours.

NOTE: The distances from Nasau (Bahamas) have been revised due to inaccuracies in initial plots.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to track to the west-northwest at 9mph. Maximum sustained winds remain at 50mph.

Tropical wave 91L.Invest continues tracking towards the west with maximum sustained winds of 25kts.

System 92L.Invest off the Florida coast is quite interesting in that it appeared quite suddenly. No movement estimate is yet given, but the maximum winds are 25kts.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to track to the west-northwest at 12mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50mph. The NHC has Florence turning sharply to the north at the end of the 5 day forecast, which will comes as a relief to those of you in the Bahamas. But, be warned, 5 day predictions can be wrong, so be prepared and stay vigilant.

Tropical wave 91L.Invest continues tracking towards the west with maximum sustained winds of 25kts.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to track to the west-northwest at 13mph. Maximum sustained winds are steady at 45mph.

Tropical wave 91L.Invest continues tracking towards the west with maximum sustained winds of 25kts.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to track to the west-northwest at 12mph. Maximum sustained winds are steady at 45mph.

Tropical wave 91L.Invest is approximately 320 miles east of where Florence began. It's moving towards the west with maximum sustained winds of 25kts. Could be another one to watch over the coming week.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to get stronger and is tracking to the west-northwest at 12mph. Maximum sustained winds are now 45mph. The NHC have adjusted the track of Florence, which takes it more westerly than north-westerly. The forecast puts Florence as a 100mph hurricane just to the east of the northern Bahamas in 5 days time.

Despite adverse conditions in the central Atlantic, Tropical Depression SIX becomes the sixth named storm of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Tropical Storm Florence is tracking to the west-northwest at 13mph with maximum sustained winds of 40mph. Since this is now a named storm, tracking will commence for Tropical Storm Florence. The Google Earth tracking files can be found on the Download Page

This is a big storm, approximately 500 miles across and, as such, it bears watching closely.

Tropical Depression SIX tracks west-northwest at 13mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. The NHC don't have much for this during the next couple of days due to currently unfavourable conditions. But, this is a large system that has turned towards a more westerly direction, and conditions are expected to become a lot more favourable for rapid development. With this system pointing directly at the Bahamas and Florida, it has to be taken very seriously indeed. Keep a close watch on it..

Tropical Depression SIX still tracks northwest at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph.

Tropical Depression SIX has not strengthened overnight, and continues to track northwest at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph.

At 2100z yesterday, system 06L.Six was classified by the NHC as tropical depression SIX. SIX is moving to the northwest at 14mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. SIX is expected to become Tropical Storm Florence by early Monday. Tracking will commence when SIX becomes Tropical Storm Florence, although current maps can be found on the maps page.

Well, now that Florence has gone I think it's about time to wind up the 2005 Season, and sign-off on Florence.

Florence brought to an end a record breaking, extended 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season that the NHC would probably like to forget. As the NHC stated in their final advisory for Florence, '...the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season ends with a record breaking storm'. Tropical Storm Florence surpassed the 1954 season's Alice #2 as the longest-lived tropical cyclone to form in December and cross over into the next year. Florence was the longest-lived January tropical cyclone. Florence also helped the 2005 Hurricane Season to amass the largest amount of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), surpassing the 1950 season.

All in all, a long and dramatic season, with more than enough extreme tropical weather to keep even the most jaded hurricane hunter satisfied. And, on the other side of the coin, far too much activity for those folk that live in the hurricane-prone areas - and I'm sure we all still feel for those that took the tragic losses.

Tropical Storm Florence has succumbed, again, to the hostile conditions and becomes a tropical depression. But this time Florence should stay down as it is eaten away by a swathe of much drier air moving across it from the west. That, together with a sharp cold front moving in quickly from the west, should put an end to Florence once and for all. Therefore, this will be the final tracking map for Florence, I swear...

Tropical Storm Florence is once again hanging onto it's tropical status by the skin of it's teeth. The satellite imagery doesn't look too good at the moment, and I believe it took a brave call by the NHC forecaster to refrain from downgrading it. It's looking very ragged, with not much discernible banding and very little convection, much the way it looked like last night at about the same time. I fear the end is drawing nigh for Florence, and will be surprised to see it last out the next 24 to 36 hours as a tropical cyclone.

You've heard of the boxer being down and out? Well, Tropical Storm Florence was down, but apparently not out. Florence has bounced back and regained tropical storm status, and is now moving northwest at 8mph with sustained winds of 40mph. A short-lived revival I believe.

Tropical Storm Florence has finally been overcome by the hostile environment in the north Atlantic, and has succumbed to the persistent 50kts of vertical shear that it has been encountering. Florence is moving to the west at 12mph with sustained winds of 35mph. This means that Florence is now officially Tropical Depression Florence, and that it never made it to that elusive hurricane status as it had threatened to do on many occasions. Tropical Depression Florence is now forecast to make a turn to the northwest, then head in that direction towards Bermuda for the next three days. I suppose there is still some possibility that Florence might again strengthen on that track, if conditions become significantly more conducive to development, so we'll continue to watch it for any signs of re-intensification.

Florence turned out to be another forecasters nightmare for the NHC team, and I'm sure they've learned a lot from the experience. Since this site only tracks named storms, this is the final tracking map for Florence. Should Florence once again become a tropical storm or hurricane over the next few days, then this site will recommence tracking. Otherwise, Adieu Florence!

Tropical Storm Florence has weakened again since the last advisory and now has sustained winds of 50mph. The NHC believe that this is a trend, and forecast Florence to continue to weaken over the next 48 hours as dry air and further shear take their toll. Florence continues to track to the west at 8mph, but is expected to turn to the northwest. Since Florence is now a shallow system they expect it to be steered by the low level flow between the high pressure system and an approaching cold front.

Tropical Storm Florence has weakened a tad since the last advisory. Florence now has sustained winds of 60mph and is tracking west at 7mph. The current weather pattern is complicated, and looks to be a real challenge for the NHC forecasters over the next couple of days as various features move quickly around the north Atlantic. But Hurricane Florence has shown itself to be a resilient system, with the ability to take the hits from strong westerlies and shear then bounce back and consolidate.

At 2200est Tropical Storm Florence is moving west-southwest at 5mph, and retains it's previous intensity of 65mph. The NHC believe that Florence is possibly more intense than the 55kts that they have assigned, that there is moderate convection near the center, and that the outflow is established with no strong shear. They are also beginning to believe that the GFDL may be correct in it's assertion that Florence will become a hurricane. Nevertheless, they are once again taking the cautious approach and sticking with 55kts for the next 24 to 36 hours.

At 1600est Tropical Storm Florence is moving west at 5mph, and is still holding on to it's 65mph sustained winds. The official forecast says that Florence is moving west, but in fact, according to the plot, Florence is now moving more towards the northwest. Now, whether this is a temporary motion or whether this is the beginning of Florence's predicted turn to the north I cannot be sure. We will need to wait for the next advisory to confirm this.

At 1000est Tropical Storm Florence is moving west-southwest at 5mph and is maintaining it's maximum sustained winds of 65mph. The forecast is for shear to decrease during the next period, but the NHC does not expect Florence to increase in intensity, we'll probably just see some consolidation, and maybe get the low level circulation synchronized with the upper convection currently offset to the northeast. Assuming this happens, then we may get a little intensification next period, although the NHC don't appear to be prepared to go out on a limb about that for the moment.

At 0400est Tropical Storm Florence is moving west-southwest at 2mph and has intensified again as it moves past the trough and begins to experience less shear. Florence's winds are now 65mph, with the reasonable chance of further intensification. The storm is still being undercut somewhat from the southwest, and convection is offset from the center to the northeast. But, Florence is in good shape now, and the possibility exists that conditions could improve slightly over the next 24 hours, culminating in Florence becoming a hurricane. In the words of the NHC; 'NO KNOWN HURRICANE HAS EVER FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY'.

At 2200est Tropical Storm Florence is moving west at 2mph and intensifying, much to the chagrin of the NHC; '...Florence STRENGTHENED AGAINST ALL ODDS AND FORECASTS...'. Winds are now up to 60mph, and Florence looks much better this evening as witnessed by the 2245z 91ghz image above. Just look at the very cold cloud tops to the north (red) that are beginning to wrap around an eye-like feature (green). I can understand the consternation at the NHC, I've seen it before with Florence. They seemed like they were pulling their hair out at times, as it continued to confound them for days. Just take a look at how Florence strengthens, then pushes it's way through the trough that moves in from the west between 2100z and 0300z. Here's the Intellicast view of it. Quite astonishing. And the forecaster has finally tipped his hat to the GFDL model; 'A BRAVO FOR THE GFDL. IT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS KEPT Florence ALIVE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN MAKES IT A 79-KNOT HURRICANE AS A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE HURRICANE.'

At 1600est Tropical Storm Florence still pushing west-southwest at 7mph. These sub-tropical storms are now beginning to irritate the forecasters at the NHC - quote: 'CLEARLY WE NEED AN INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF INTENSITY CHANGE FOR SYSTEMS IN THE SUBTROPICS SUCH AS Florence...Florence...VINCE...ETC'. As soon as Florence appears to be on it's last legs it gives another burst of convection, and surprises them again. They really need to get reconnaissance out to at least one of these systems in order to gain more of an understanding of what makes them tick. Apparently, Florence is still being subjected to heavy shear with still more to come, and it is inconceivable to the NHC that a storm is able to function under such extreme conditions. It is going to come as more than a little surprise if Florence intensifies to hurricane status during tonight, just as the GFDL model has been predicting all along.

At 1000est Tropical Storm Florence is still pushing to the west-southwest at 8mph with sustained winds of 50mph. This motion is expected to continue, and the NHC are still predicting that Florence will expire in 24 hours - they have been saying this for the last 2 days. As with Florence, the other pain in the NHC's backside, Tropical Storm Florence just refuses to die, and the longer it pushes west the more chance it has of becoming a hurricane - my opinion only.

NOTE: The NHC maps are now back.

Tropical Storm Florence still meandering in a large anti clockwise pattern in the middle of the North Atlantic. Shear has reduced since the last advisory and convection has become somewhat stronger, although intensity is still judged to be in the 50mph range. Further shear is expected to again take the wind out of the sails of Florence over the next 12 hours, which could ultimately lead to it's demise.

A HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL

NOTE: It looks as if the NHC have discontinued producing prediction maps as of 0400est.

Tropical Storm Florence still meanders in the middle of the North Atlantic with little change over the last 12 hours. Florence is still being impacted by shear but less so than 24 hours ago, and the thinking now is that Florence could go on milling around for quite a while longer. One of the computer models is predicting that Florence becomes a hurricane in 3 to 4 days, although the NHC are discounting this scenario for the time being. Florence appears to be in an area of poor steering so it's motion is expected to be erratic, although a general motion towards the west is forecast.

Tropical Storm Florence has begun to meander in the middle of the Atlantic with some movement to the south-southeast of it's last position. The signature has slowly deteriorated as shear has eaten into it's low level circulation on the west side. The NHC expect this weakening to continue for the next couple of days before Tropical Storm Florence is absorbed by a frontal trough from the west. Florence's winds are currently 50mph, and a decrease in intensity is expected to follow shortly.

Tropical Storm Florence has made the predicted turn to the west, but the NHC have revised their thinking on what they expect Florence to do over the next couple of days. As Florence moves towards the west, it's center will become increasingly exposed to the increasing westerlies which will limit strong convection on that side, although convection on the eastern side remains strong. It is now known that the wind field is rather small, as reported by a ship that passed within 40 nautical miles of Florence, and those winds were reported as being no higher than 34kts. A frontal system 700 miles to the northwest could turn Florence sharply northwards assuming that Florence can manage to hold on for that long. So, based on the new observations and other data, Tropical Storm Florence's time could well be shorter than was thought on the previous advisory.

Tropical Storm Florence has become better organized, according to the NHC, as can be seen on the 37Gh TRMM image. Still tracking northwest with winds up from 50 to 60mph, Florence has deep convection over it's low-level center and cold cloud tops, all good signs. The NHC believes that Florence's intensity could be even higher than quoted, with sustained winds of up to 60kts, but they remain cautious and suggest they may up the figure at the next advisory. They also believe that Florence may last longer than expected and take a more westerly or southwesterly track. Another concern that they have is that the wind shear that has been used up to now may be too high, since Florence is a relatively shallow system, and this could be another factor that decides on how much further Florence will be able to develop over the coming hours.

Tropical Storm Florence still tracking northwest at 7mph with sustained winds of 50mph.

Tropical Storm Florence finally makes an appearance, and just in time before the year runs out. Florence formed out of a feature in the eastern Atlantic that appeared a couple of days ago, and in a similar area to Hurricane Vince, about 1000 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Storm Florence is currently tracking to the northwest at 7mph with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. This is the latest time in the year that a tropical system has ever formed, making Hurricane - elect Florence yet another record breaker.

Well, it looks as if nothing wicked this way cometh, at least not for now. It's beginning to look as if Hurricane Florence is about to become the last official storm of the 2005 Hurricane Season. And, with no Hurricane Florence to worry about, that's the last of the Greek alphabet we'll be using for a while. As of the 1st January 2006, the first named storm that appears will be given the name Alberto. And those that follow will take the following names Florence Chris Florence Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William . Here's looking forward to a quiet New Year!

Florence to-be finally met it's match this afternoon as it came up against the limit of it's westerly motion, and was flattened by the trough. And, that looks as if it might be the end of the show for the time being. There's still the possibility of another cut-off low over the next few days, although the models don't appear to give it much chance, and that's not surprising now considering how late into the year we are. No, I think we could be going into a slow spell that will hopefully last until June! But, we'll be watching, and if anything that looks remotely like Florence turns up between now and year-end, then we'll track it.

Well, it looks like the cut off low has had it's shot at becoming Florence and failed. It was looking quite close to being a classifiable system three hours before this image, but as we can now see, time has run out as it gets ever closer to the trough. Take a look at the image now (051213_1500z), then check out how it looked around 9am on the Intellicast. Back then, it was fully free of the low and moving west under it's own steam. Now look how it's been squished by the trough into a sort of north-south ellipse. This signals the end of Hurricane Florence to-be within the next 24 hours. Good effort, but ultimately not enough time, and a bit too far north for it's own good.

The low appears to have cut off completely from the associated fronts as of the 0000z Intellicast. That's promising. So was the convection that was seen around the core on the 2100z, even though it was a bit on the weak side. The bad news is the front moving in from the west in the next few days. If Florence to-be does not get a move on, then it could be game over in a couple of days.

Well, you'd better get your predictions in quickly now, since the low has cut-off and we could have Florence in a couple of days. Check the image first, then go and make your prediction at the bottom of the box.

All is quiet at the moment. There is no current tropical activity within the Atlantic Basin. Hurricane Florence is long gone, and could be the last storm we see this season, although some of the computer models are showing the possibility of another cut-off low similar to Florence and Delta during the next week. Could we really get to see Hurricane Florence before the end of the year? If so, would it first appear

1. before Christmas
2. after Christmas
3. on Christmas Day
4. not this year, thank you.
(all times GMT)

To give you a bit of help, try the popular computer weather prediction models here

All Hurricane Florence news has now been archived to the Hurricane Florence Tracking Page. All hurricanes and tropical storms that have been tracked by this site are archived on the relevant tracking pages. Links to these tracking pages can be found in the top table on this page. Just click on any of the links under Florence, Delta etc., or, for Florence, just click on the link below.

Hurricane Florence Discussion

Click here for previous Florence Reports. Don't forget, always read news from bottom to top.

Tropical Storm Florence completely fell apart overnight and was downgraded by the NHC to tropical depression at the last 11am advisory. Florence had a good run, a very good run considering the time of the year and the environment it was having to work with. Accordingly, the 4am advisory was the final map for Hurricane Florence.

Dave Foster