Hurricane Gamma Tracking

Tropical Depression Gamma has now dissipated into a remnant low pressure area, and that is the last advisory issued by the NHC for Gamma. Our thoughts go out to all those families in Honduras that are missing loved ones or that are suffering hardship as a result of Tropical Storm Gamma.

Tropical Storm Gamma spun off the Honduras coast for two days and pulverized the north of the country. President Ricardo Maduro told journalists in El Progreso that the damage along all the northern coast was terrible and that people were on the roofs of their homes due to flooding. Gamma's heavy rains have been linked to the deaths of at least twelve people in Honduras. Reuters reported that about 60 percent of El Progreso was under water. El Progreso is situated on a river near the northern Honduras coast and has 200,000 inhabitants.

Tropical Storm Gamma is still just north of the Honduras coast and has decreased in intensity as expected. The latest NHC advisory as of 0600CST has downgraded Gamma to a Tropical Depression and it looks as if Gamma will soon be dissipating. This will be the final tracking map for Tropical Storm Gamma. And here's hoping we don't see any more Greek letters this season!!

Tropical Storm Gamma is now on the move towards the northeast at 6mph with sustained winds of 45mph. The NHC expect no further intensification tonight and stress that Gamma's movement can be expected to be erratic.

It appears that Tropical Storm Gamma has been quietly meandering around the western Caribbean for the last 24 hours confusing everyone including the NHC, confounding all the computer models, and generally making a nuisance of itself. It now looks like it might either 1) break up of it's own accord, or 2) get gobbled up by the low and associated front that is steadily moving down into the area. Like I said in the last report, time will tell. Anyone still think it's gonna hit Florida?

Despite what the NHC are saying in terms of it's motion, Tropical Storm Gamma appears, at the moment, to be moving back towards it's original position (check the plot). There has been no further intensification of Gamma overnight with maximum sustained winds estimated at 45mph. There is still the possibility that Gamma could remain in this area until getting wiped out by the approaching cold front. Time will tell. What do you think? Leave me a message.

Tropical Storm Gamma continues to move towards the west at 5mph and is slowly intensifying. The NHC is predicting that Gamma will cross near to the Florida Keys by early Monday evening then fly up the coast into a approaching cold front.

System 27L has now been re-classified by the NHC as Tropical Storm Gamma. Gamma is some 38 miles north of the Honduras coast and tracking west-northwest at 5mph with maximum sustained winds of 40mph.

System 27L and low 93L are just north of the Honduras coast, still considered separate entities by the Navymil, but the consensus now appears to see these as a merged system that is about to intensify and move north across southern Florida or northeast across Cuba then up the coast. The NHC are still sitting on the fence on this one, and issued another special tropical disturbance statement this morning at 0900EST reporting that 27L was better organized and that it could develop into a tropical storm some time today. A recon is scheduled for this afternoon, and sources suggest that we will again have a tropical depression, or possibly a tropical storm which would, of course, be declared as Tropical Storm Gamma.

According to the Navy military, weather system 93L has merged with the remnants of 27L and they are again reporting the system as 27L. Their latest pass revealed that there is still some circulation off the coast, but that it is weak and well removed from the significant convection. The NHC appear to be hedging their bets on this one by releasing a special tropical disturbance statement. This states that they believe we could still get a tropical depression out of 27L - or 93L depending on how you look at it - over the next couple of days, although their language seems to indicate that they are not too certain.

Weather system 93L continues to move around the southwestern Caribbean and is still the subject of an investigation by the US military. Most sources are at odds as to whether this system will become a prominent feature over the next couple of days, or whether it will move over Nicaragua and Honduras and rain itself out. From what I've seen of it over the last couple of days I'm of the opinion that it might just stay out at sea, get a bit more organized, then get classified by the NHC as Tropical Depression 28.

As far as the further outlook is concerned it looks unlikely to gain tropical cyclone status due to some unfavourable conditions that are beginning to develop. It seems that Hurricane Gamma is turning out to be an elusive beast. What do you think? Leave me a message.

Tropical Depression 27 is now dead in the water. The NHC believe that TD27 has dissipated, and have therefore ceased issuing advisories as of 1000EST.

A weather system that has been mulling around the southwestern Caribbean for the last couple of days is under investigation by the US military and has been codenamed 93L. This is beginning to assert itself somewhat, and looks to be an interesting proposition for classification by the NHC shortly. It's likely to bring increasing amounts of rain to Nicaragua and Honduras as it slowly intensifies, and possibly moves inland over the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression 27 continues west but it has become further disorganized and it's closed circulation has all but disappeared. The NHC believe that TD27 could dissipate today, therefore I have suspended tracking pending further news.

Tropical Depression 27 continues to edge west but it is still poorly organized. The NHC believes that, over time, conditions will become more favourable for further development, although that pre-supposes that continuing, but reducing wind shear will not destroy it first.

Tropical Depression 27 continues to track towards the west as a loosely organized system that is being badly affected by westerly shear. The NHC predicts that it will continue on this westerly track for the next five days, and expect it to develop very slowly into Tropical Storm Gamma, although it's chances of attaining hurricane status appear to be quite remote at the moment. Since there is now a good opportunity of this becoming 'Gamma' this site will begin Google Earth tracking from 14th November, 1000EST.

It looks like newly formed Tropical Depression 27 might get a shot at the title of Hurricane Gamma in a couple of days time. TD27 is currently in the southeast Caribbean and moving northwest, just to the east of the Windward Islands. The NHC expect it to make Tropical Storm status soon, but they are not yet forecasting it to become a hurricane.

Dave Foster