Click here for previous Kirk Reports. Don't forget, always read news from bottom to top.

Dave Foster

Well, now that Kirk has gone I think it's about time to wind up the 2005 Season, and sign-off on Kirk.

Kirk brought to an end a record breaking, extended 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season that the NHC would probably like to forget. As the NHC stated in their final advisory for Kirk, '...the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season ends with a record breaking storm'. Tropical Storm Kirk surpassed the 1954 season's Alice #2 as the longest-lived tropical cyclone to form in December and cross over into the next year. Kirk was the longest-lived January tropical cyclone. Kirk also helped the 2005 Hurricane Season to amass the largest amount of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), surpassing the 1950 season.

All in all, a long and dramatic season, with more than enough extreme tropical weather to keep even the most jaded hurricane hunter satisfied. And, on the other side of the coin, far too much activity for those folk that live in the hurricane-prone areas - and I'm sure we all still feel for those that took the tragic losses.

Tropical Storm Kirk has succumbed, again, to the hostile conditions and becomes a tropical depression. But this time Kirk should stay down as it is eaten away by a swathe of much drier air moving across it from the west. That, together with a sharp cold front moving in quickly from the west, should put an end to Kirk once and for all. Therefore, this will be the final tracking map for Kirk, I swear...

Tropical Storm Kirk is once again hanging onto it's tropical status by the skin of it's teeth. The satellite imagery doesn't look too good at the moment, and I believe it took a brave call by the NHC forecaster to refrain from downgrading it. It's looking very ragged, with not much discernible banding and very little convection, much the way it looked like last night at about the same time. I fear the end is drawing nigh for Kirk, and will be surprised to see it last out the next 24 to 36 hours as a tropical cyclone.

You've heard of the boxer being down and out? Well, Tropical Storm Kirk was down, but apparently not out. Kirk has bounced back and regained tropical storm status, and is now moving northwest at 8mph with sustained winds of 40mph. A short-lived revival I believe.

Tropical Storm Kirk has finally been overcome by the hostile environment in the north Atlantic, and has succumbed to the persistent 50kts of vertical shear that it has been encountering. Kirk is moving to the west at 12mph with sustained winds of 35mph. This means that Kirk is now officially Tropical Depression Kirk, and that it never made it to that elusive hurricane status as it had threatened to do on many occasions. Tropical Depression Kirk is now forecast to make a turn to the northwest, then head in that direction towards Bermuda for the next three days. I suppose there is still some possibility that Kirk might again strengthen on that track, if conditions become significantly more conducive to development, so we'll continue to watch it for any signs of re-intensification.

Kirk turned out to be another forecasters nightmare for the NHC team, and I'm sure they've learned a lot from the experience. Since this site only tracks named storms, this is the final tracking map for Kirk. Should Kirk once again become a tropical storm or hurricane over the next few days, then this site will recommence tracking. Otherwise, Adieu Kirk!

Tropical Storm Kirk has weakened again since the last advisory and now has sustained winds of 50mph. The NHC believe that this is a trend, and forecast Kirk to continue to weaken over the next 48 hours as dry air and further shear take their toll. Kirk continues to track to the west at 8mph, but is expected to turn to the northwest. Since Kirk is now a shallow system they expect it to be steered by the low level flow between the high pressure system and an approaching cold front.

Tropical Storm Kirk has weakened a tad since the last advisory. Kirk now has sustained winds of 60mph and is tracking west at 7mph. The current weather pattern is complicated, and looks to be a real challenge for the NHC forecasters over the next couple of days as various features move quickly around the north Atlantic. But Hurricane Kirk has shown itself to be a resilient system, with the ability to take the hits from strong westerlies and shear then bounce back and consolidate.

At 2200est Tropical Storm Kirk is moving west-southwest at 5mph, and retains it's previous intensity of 65mph. The NHC believe that Kirk is possibly more intense than the 55kts that they have assigned, that there is moderate convection near the center, and that the outflow is established with no strong shear. They are also beginning to believe that the GFDL may be correct in it's assertion that Kirk will become a hurricane. Nevertheless, they are once again taking the cautious approach and sticking with 55kts for the next 24 to 36 hours.

At 1600est Tropical Storm Kirk is moving west at 5mph, and is still holding on to it's 65mph sustained winds. The official forecast says that Kirk is moving west, but in fact, according to the plot, Kirk is now moving more towards the northwest. Now, whether this is a temporary motion or whether this is the beginning of Kirk's predicted turn to the north I cannot be sure. We will need to wait for the next advisory to confirm this.

At 1000est Tropical Storm Kirk is moving west-southwest at 5mph and is maintaining it's maximum sustained winds of 65mph. The forecast is for shear to decrease during the next period, but the NHC does not expect Kirk to increase in intensity, we'll probably just see some consolidation, and maybe get the low level circulation synchronized with the upper convection currently offset to the northeast. Assuming this happens, then we may get a little intensification next period, although the NHC don't appear to be prepared to go out on a limb about that for the moment.

At 0400est Tropical Storm Kirk is moving west-southwest at 2mph and has intensified again as it moves past the trough and begins to experience less shear. Kirk's winds are now 65mph, with the reasonable chance of further intensification. The storm is still being undercut somewhat from the southwest, and convection is offset from the center to the northeast. But, Kirk is in good shape now, and the possibility exists that conditions could improve slightly over the next 24 hours, culminating in Kirk becoming a hurricane. In the words of the NHC; 'NO KNOWN HURRICANE HAS EVER FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY'.

At 2200est Tropical Storm Kirk is moving west at 2mph and intensifying, much to the chagrin of the NHC; '...Kirk STRENGTHENED AGAINST ALL ODDS AND FORECASTS...'. Winds are now up to 60mph, and Kirk looks much better this evening as witnessed by the 2245z 91ghz image above. Just look at the very cold cloud tops to the north (red) that are beginning to wrap around an eye-like feature (green). I can understand the consternation at the NHC, I've seen it before with Kirk. They seemed like they were pulling their hair out at times, as it continued to confound them for days. Just take a look at how Kirk strengthens, then pushes it's way through the trough that moves in from the west between 2100z and 0300z. Here's the Intellicast view of it. Quite astonishing. And the forecaster has finally tipped his hat to the GFDL model; 'A BRAVO FOR THE GFDL. IT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS KEPT Kirk ALIVE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN MAKES IT A 79-KNOT HURRICANE AS A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE HURRICANE.'

At 1600est Tropical Storm Kirk still pushing west-southwest at 7mph. These sub-tropical storms are now beginning to irritate the forecasters at the NHC - quote: 'CLEARLY WE NEED AN INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF INTENSITY CHANGE FOR SYSTEMS IN THE SUBTROPICS SUCH AS Kirk...Kirk...VINCE...ETC'. As soon as Kirk appears to be on it's last legs it gives another burst of convection, and surprises them again. They really need to get reconnaissance out to at least one of these systems in order to gain more of an understanding of what makes them tick. Apparently, Kirk is still being subjected to heavy shear with still more to come, and it is inconceivable to the NHC that a storm is able to function under such extreme conditions. It is going to come as more than a little surprise if Kirk intensifies to hurricane status during tonight, just as the GFDL model has been predicting all along.

At 1000est Tropical Storm Kirk is still pushing to the west-southwest at 8mph with sustained winds of 50mph. This motion is expected to continue, and the NHC are still predicting that Kirk will expire in 24 hours - they have been saying this for the last 2 days. As with Kirk, the other pain in the NHC's backside, Tropical Storm Kirk just refuses to die, and the longer it pushes west the more chance it has of becoming a hurricane - my opinion only.

NOTE: The NHC maps are now back.

Tropical Storm Kirk still meandering in a large anti clockwise pattern in the middle of the North Atlantic. Shear has reduced since the last advisory and convection has become somewhat stronger, although intensity is still judged to be in the 50mph range. Further shear is expected to again take the wind out of the sails of Kirk over the next 12 hours, which could ultimately lead to it's demise.

A HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL

NOTE: It looks as if the NHC have discontinued producing prediction maps as of 0400est.

Tropical Storm Kirk still meanders in the middle of the North Atlantic with little change over the last 12 hours. Kirk is still being impacted by shear but less so than 24 hours ago, and the thinking now is that Kirk could go on milling around for quite a while longer. One of the computer models is predicting that Kirk becomes a hurricane in 3 to 4 days, although the NHC are discounting this scenario for the time being. Kirk appears to be in an area of poor steering so it's motion is expected to be erratic, although a general motion towards the west is forecast.

Tropical Storm Kirk has begun to meander in the middle of the Atlantic with some movement to the south-southeast of it's last position. The signature has slowly deteriorated as shear has eaten into it's low level circulation on the west side. The NHC expect this weakening to continue for the next couple of days before Tropical Storm Kirk is absorbed by a frontal trough from the west. Kirk's winds are currently 50mph, and a decrease in intensity is expected to follow shortly.

Tropical Storm Kirk has made the predicted turn to the west, but the NHC have revised their thinking on what they expect Kirk to do over the next couple of days. As Kirk moves towards the west, it's center will become increasingly exposed to the increasing westerlies which will limit strong convection on that side, although convection on the eastern side remains strong. It is now known that the wind field is rather small, as reported by a ship that passed within 40 nautical miles of Kirk, and those winds were reported as being no higher than 34kts. A frontal system 700 miles to the northwest could turn Kirk sharply northwards assuming that Kirk can manage to hold on for that long. So, based on the new observations and other data, Tropical Storm Kirk's time could well be shorter than was thought on the previous advisory.

Tropical Storm Kirk has become better organized, according to the NHC, as can be seen on the 37Gh TRMM image. Still tracking northwest with winds up from 50 to 60mph, Kirk has deep convection over it's low-level center and cold cloud tops, all good signs. The NHC believes that Kirk's intensity could be even higher than quoted, with sustained winds of up to 60kts, but they remain cautious and suggest they may up the figure at the next advisory. They also believe that Kirk may last longer than expected and take a more westerly or southwesterly track. Another concern that they have is that the wind shear that has been used up to now may be too high, since Kirk is a relatively shallow system, and this could be another factor that decides on how much further Kirk will be able to develop over the coming hours.

Tropical Storm Kirk still tracking northwest at 7mph with sustained winds of 50mph.

Tropical Storm Kirk finally makes an appearance, and just in time before the year runs out. Kirk formed out of a feature in the eastern Atlantic that appeared a couple of days ago, and in a similar area to Hurricane Vince, about 1000 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Storm Kirk is currently tracking to the northwest at 7mph with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. This is the latest time in the year that a tropical system has ever formed, making Hurricane - elect Kirk yet another record breaker.

Well, it looks as if nothing wicked this way cometh, at least not for now. It's beginning to look as if Hurricane Kirk is about to become the last official storm of the 2005 Hurricane Season. And, with no Hurricane Kirk to worry about, that's the last of the Greek alphabet we'll be using for a while. As of the 1st January 2006, the first named storm that appears will be given the name Alberto. And those that follow will take the following names Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William . Here's looking forward to a quiet New Year!

Kirk to-be finally met it's match this afternoon as it came up against the limit of it's westerly motion, and was flattened by the trough. And, that looks as if it might be the end of the show for the time being. There's still the possibility of another cut-off low over the next few days, although the models don't appear to give it much chance, and that's not surprising now considering how late into the year we are. No, I think we could be going into a slow spell that will hopefully last until June! But, we'll be watching, and if anything that looks remotely like Kirk turns up between now and year-end, then we'll track it.

Well, it looks like the cut off low has had it's shot at becoming Kirk and failed. It was looking quite close to being a classifiable system three hours before this image, but as we can now see, time has run out as it gets ever closer to the trough. Take a look at the image now (051213_1500z), then check out how it looked around 9am on the Intellicast. Back then, it was fully free of the low and moving west under it's own steam. Now look how it's been squished by the trough into a sort of north-south ellipse. This signals the end of Hurricane Kirk to-be within the next 24 hours. Good effort, but ultimately not enough time, and a bit too far north for it's own good.

The low appears to have cut off completely from the associated fronts as of the 0000z Intellicast. That's promising. So was the convection that was seen around the core on the 2100z, even though it was a bit on the weak side. The bad news is the front moving in from the west in the next few days. If Kirk to-be does not get a move on, then it could be game over in a couple of days.

Well, you'd better get your predictions in quickly now, since the low has cut-off and we could have Kirk in a couple of days. Check the image first, then go and make your prediction at the bottom of the box.

All is quiet at the moment. There is no current tropical activity within the Atlantic Basin. Hurricane Kirk is long gone, and could be the last storm we see this season, although some of the computer models are showing the possibility of another cut-off low similar to Kirk and Delta during the next week. Could we really get to see Hurricane Kirk before the end of the year?

Click here for previous Kirk Reports. Don't forget, always read news from bottom to top.

Tropical Storm Kirk completely fell apart overnight and was downgraded by the NHC to tropical depression at the last 11am advisory. Kirk had a good run, a very good run considering the time of the year and the environment it was having to work with. Accordingly, the 4am advisory was the final map for Hurricane Kirk.

Dave Foster