Well, now that Zeta has gone I think it's about time to wind up the 2005 Season, and sign-off on Zeta.

Zeta brought to an end a record breaking, extended 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season that the NHC would probably like to forget. As the NHC stated in their final advisory for Zeta, '...2005 Atlantic Hurricane season ends with a record breaking storm'. Tropical Storm Zeta surpassed the 1954 season's Alice #2 as the longest-lived tropical cyclone to form in December and cross over into the next year. Zeta was the longest-lived January tropical cyclone. Zeta also helped the 2005 Hurricane Season to amass the largest amount of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), surpassing the 1950 season.

Tropical Storm Zeta has succumbed, again, to the hostile conditions and becomes a tropical depression. But this time Zeta should stay down as it is eaten away by a swathe of much drier air moving across it from the west. That, together with a sharp cold front moving in quickly from the west, should put an end to Zeta once and for all. Therefore, this will be the final tracking map for Zeta, I swear...

Tropical Storm Zeta is once again hanging onto it's tropical status by the skin of it's teeth. The satellite imagery doesn't look too good at the moment, and I believe it took a brave call by the NHC forecaster to refrain from downgrading it. It's looking very ragged, with not much discernible banding and very little convection, much the way it looked like last night at about the same time. I fear the end is drawing nigh for Zeta, and will be surprised to see it last out the next 24 to 36 hours as a tropical cyclone.

You've heard of the boxer being down and out? Well, Tropical Storm Zeta was down, but apparently not out. Zeta has bounced back and regained tropical storm status, and is now moving northwest at 8mph with sustained winds of 40mph. A short-lived revival I believe.

Tropical Storm Zeta has finally been overcome by the hostile environment in the north Atlantic, and has succumbed to the persistent 50kts of vertical shear that it has been encountering. Zeta is moving to the west at 12mph with sustained winds of 35mph. This means that Zeta is now officially Tropical Depression Zeta, and that it never made it to that elusive hurricane status as it had threatened to do on many occasions. Tropical Depression Zeta is now forecast to make a turn to the northwest, then head in that direction towards Bermuda for the next three days. I suppose there is still some possibility that Zeta might again strengthen on that track, if conditions become significantly more conducive to development, so we'll continue to watch it for any signs of re-intensification.

Zeta turned out to be another forecasters nightmare for the NHC team, and I'm sure they've learned a lot from the experience. Since this site only tracks named storms, this is the final tracking map for Zeta. Should Zeta once again become a tropical storm or hurricane over the next few days, then this site will recommence tracking. Otherwise, Adieu Zeta!

Tropical Storm Zeta has weakened again since the last advisory and now has sustained winds of 50mph. The NHC believe that this is a trend, and forecast Zeta to continue to weaken over the next 48 hours as dry air and further shear take their toll. Zeta continues to track to the west at 8mph, but is expected to turn to the northwest. Since Zeta is now a shallow system they expect it to be steered by the low level flow between the high pressure system and an approaching cold front.

Tropical Storm Zeta has weakened a tad since the last advisory. Zeta now has sustained winds of 60mph and is tracking west at 7mph. The current weather pattern is complicated, and looks to be a real challenge for the NHC forecasters over the next couple of days as various features move quickly around the north Atlantic. But Hurricane Zeta has shown itself to be a resilient system, with the abilty to take the hits from strong westerlies and shear then bounce back and consolidate.

At 2200est Tropical Storm Zeta is moving west-southwest at 5mph, and retains it's previous intensity of 65mph. The NHC believe that Zeta is possibly more intense than the 55kts that they have assigned, that there is moderate convection near the center, and that the outflow is established with no strong shear. They are also beginning to believe that the GFDL may be correct in it's assertion that Zeta will become a hurricane. Nevertheless, they are once again taking the cautious approach and sticking with 55kts for the next 24 to 36 hours.

At 1600est Tropical Storm Zeta is moving west at 5mph, and is still holding on to it's 65mph sustained winds. The official forecast says that Zeta is moving west, but in fact, according to the plot, Zeta is now moving more towards the northwest. Now, whether this is a temporary motion or whether this is the beginning of Zeta's predicted turn to the north I cannot be sure. We will need to wait for the next advisory to confirm this.

At 1000est Tropical Storm Zeta is moving west-southwest at 5mph and is maintaining it's maximum sustained winds of 65mph. The forecast is for shear to decrease during the next period, but the NHC does not expect Zeta to increase in intensity, we'll probably just see some consolidation, and maybe get the low level circulation synchronized with the upper convection currently offset to the northeast. Assuming this happens, then we may get a little intensification next period, although the NHC don't appear to be prepared to go out on a limb about that for the moment.

At 0400est Tropical Storm Zeta is moving west-southwest at 2mph and has intensified again as it moves past the trough and begins to experience less shear. Zeta's winds are now 65mph, with the reasonable chance of further intensification. The storm is still being undercut somewhat from the southwest, and convection is offset from the center to the northeast. But, Zeta is in good shape now, and the possibility exists that conditions could improve slightly over the next 24 hours, culminating in Zeta becoming a hurricane. In the words of the NHC; 'NO KNOWN HURRICANE HAS EVER FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY'.

At 2200est Tropical Storm Zeta is moving west at 2mph and intensifying, much to the chagrin of the NHC; '...ZETA STRENGTHENED AGAINST ALL ODDS AND FORECASTS...'. Winds are now up to 60mph, and Zeta looks much better this evening as witnessed by the 2245z 91ghz image above. Just look at the very cold cloud tops to the north (red) that are begining to wrap around an eye-like feature (green). I can understand the consternation at the NHC, I've seen it before with Epsilon. They seemed like they were pulling their hair out at times, as it continued to confound them for days. Just take a look at how Zeta strengthens, then pushes it's way through the trough that moves in from the west between 2100z and 0300z. Here's the Intellicast view of it. Quite astonishing. And the forecaster has finally tipped his hat to the GFDL model; 'A BRAVO FOR THE GFDL. IT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS KEPT ZETA ALIVE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN MAKES IT A 79-KNOT HURRICANE AS A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE HURRICANE.'

At 1600est Tropical Storm Zeta still pushing west-southwest at 7mph. These sub-tropical storms are now begining to irritate the forecasters at the NHC - quote: 'CLEARLY WE NEED AN INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF INTENSITY CHANGE FOR SYSTEMS IN THE SUBTROPICS SUCH AS ZETA...EPSILON...VINCE...ETC'. As soon as Zeta appears to be on it's last legs it gives another burst of convection, and surprises them again. They really need to get reconnaissance out to at least one of these systems in order to gain more of an understanding of what makes them tick. Apparently, Zeta is still being subjected to heavy shear with still more to come, and it is inconceivable to the NHC that a storm is able to function under such extreme conditions. It is going to come as more than a little surprise if Zeta intensifies to hurricane status during tonight, just as the GFDL model has been predicting all along.

At 1000est Tropical Storm Zeta is still pushing to the west-southwest at 8mph with sustained winds of 50mph. This motion is expected to continue, and the NHC are still predicting that Zeta will expire in 24 hours - they have been saying this for the last 2 days. As with Epsilon, the other pain in the NHC's backside, Tropical Storm Zeta just refuses to die, and the longer it pushes west the more chance it has of becoming a hurricane - my opinion only.

NOTE: The NHC maps are now back.

Tropical Storm Zeta still meandering in a large anticlockwise pattern in the middle of the North Atlantic. Shear has reduced since the last advisory and convection has become somewhat stronger, although intensity is still judged to be in the 50mph range. Further shear is expected to again take the wind out of the sails of Zeta over the next 12 hours, which could ultimately lead to it's demise.

A HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL

NOTE: It looks as if the NHC have discontinued producing prediction maps as of 0400est.

Tropical Storm Zeta still meanders in the middle of the North Atlantic with little change over the last 12 hours. Zeta is still being impacted by shear but less so than 24 hours ago, and the thinking now is that Zeta could go on milling around for quite a while longer. One of the computer models is predicting that Zeta becomes a hurricane in 3 to 4 days, although the NHC are discounting this scenario for the time being. Zeta appears to be in an area of poor steering so it's motion is expected to be erratic, although a general motion towards the west is forecast.

Tropical Storm Zeta has begun to meander in the middle of the Atlantic with some movement to the south-southeast of it's last position. The signature has slowly deteriorated as shear has eaten into it's low level circulation on the west side. The NHC expect this weakening to continue for the next couple of days before Tropical Storm Zeta is absorbed by a frontal trough from the west. Zeta's winds are currently 50mph, and a decrease in intensity is expected to follow shortly.

Tropical Storm Zeta has made the predicted turn to the west, but the NHC have revised their thinking on what they expect Zeta to do over the next couple of days. As Zeta moves towards the west, it's center will become increasingly exposed to the increasing westerlies which will limit strong convection on that side, although convection on the eastern side remains strong. It is now known that the windfield is rather small, as reported by a ship that passed within 40 nautical miles of Zeta, and those winds were reported as being no higher than 34kts. A frontal system 700 miles to the northwest could turn Zeta sharply northwards assuming that Zeta can manage to hold on for that long. So, based on the new observations and other data, Tropical Storm Zeta's time could well be shorter than was thought on the previous advisory.

Tropical Storm Zeta has become better organized, according to the NHC, as can be seen on the 37Gh TRMM image. Still tracking northwest with winds up from 50 to 60mph, Zeta has deep convection over it's low-level center and cold cloud tops, all good signs. The NHC believes that Zeta's intensity could be even higher than quoted, with sustained winds of up to 60kts, but they remain cautious and suggest they may up the figure at the next advisory. They also believe that Zeta may last longer than expected and take a more westerly or southwesterly track. Another concern that they have is that the windshear that has been used up to now may be too high, since Zeta is a relatively shallow system, and this could be another factor that decides on how much further Zeta will be able to develop over the coming hours.

Tropical Storm Zeta still tracking northwest at 7mph with sustained winds of 50mph.

Tropical Storm Zeta finally makes an appearance, and just in time before the year runs out. Zeta formed out of a feature in the eastern Atlantic that appeared a couple of days ago, and in a similar area to Hurricane Vince, about 1000 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Storm Zeta is currently tracking to the northwest at 7mph with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. This is the latest time in the year that a tropical system has ever formed, making Hurricane - elect Zeta yet another record breaker.

When Tropical Storm Zeta emerges from the cut-off low in the central north Atlantic this page will feature it's tracking map from Google Earth.

Dave Foster